Talk:Final Fantasy XI 6th Anniversary Mog Bonanza
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Correct me if I am wrong, but that's 1 million possible winning combinations? --GAHOO t/ c 20:22, 30 April 2008 (UTC)
The Rank 3 prize is listed wrong for the RDM piece, it should be Duelist's Tabard, not Chapeau --Dalkiel 21:18, 30 April 2008 (UTC)
Melee Crown is mentioned in 2 different ranks, 2 and 3 - the official page only has it as rank 2. - IkariLoona 21:51, 30 April 2008 (UTC)
Rank 3 Warrior Relic is Warrior's Cuisses, not Warrior's Lorica --Saikouoffenrir 02:15, 1 May 2008 (UTC)
Should assassin's armlets be listed as rank 2 & 3 --Lordshadow 15:41, 1 May 2008 (UTC)
- PlayOnline page was like this when I made it, they've been correcting over the last 24 hours. Fixed now though. --CharitwoTalk 16:12, 1 May 2008 (UTC)
- Rank 3 THF relic is Assassin's Culotte Soily 16:15, 1 May 2008 (UTC)
Dig the draw on June 30th yet can't claim anything until July 2nd >.> Tah 05:34, 28 June 2008 (UTC)Tah
- SE doesn't want players to close their accounts until after the third month, to monitor any sneaky RMT services more closely. Gryph 13:28, 30 June 2008 (CST)
Contents |
The Odds
I'm bad at math, but 100,000 possible combinations, only 10 chances per character, how many characters per Player ID? I'm curious at this because 100,000 x 1,000 = 100,000,000, so it's break even if you wouldn't also win 10 Rank 2, 100 Rank 3, 1000 Rank 4, and 10000 Rank 5 prizes. ... ... ...You know, aside from paying SE a massive amount of RL money, that is...--Ctownwoody 16:14, 3 May 2008 (UTC)
My understanding is that there are 16 characters possible per Player ID... That's 160 chances for $15 for each of 2 months. (3 if you want to spread the chances out for each of the 10 possible digits and ensure a win of some form.)
I have already expressed serious RMT and SquareEnix RL money concerns (could SE be doing this simply to make money -- for all it would take is a little time and $1 a month for 3 months or so to get a character to level 5 and get 10 more chances. 100,000,000 gil is a tremendously imbalancing prize, and then you have to imagine, on top of it, what if an RMT ring gets their hands on this many gil?? Loved the lottery idea when I heard about it at the Fan Festival 2007. Not as crazy about it now. --Starcade 09:45, 4 May 2008 (UTC)
- If any prize money is used in RMT services, the gil will just be frozen. SE knows what they're doing, which is why they waited to give rewards until the beginning of the July payment cycle and prevented 600,000+ mule accounts from being closed at the end of June. This minimizes their work load and maximizes their effort to control RMT services. There is virtually nothing to worry about. (No pun intended.) Gryph 13:33, 30 June 2008 (CST)
- PS: If you think SE is just trying to leech that extra dollar out of you then you're out of your mind. This event earned more money getting old players to come back to FFXI than it did getting existing players to create mules. Chances are, more than 100 Million was already lost when the entire online society traded their 10k in for marbles. The economy will not become any less stable because of this event. Gryph 13:34, 30 June 2008 (CST)
- 1000 gil to enter, 100,000 winners. The money isn't inbalance at all, what gets put into the game gets sent back out. --CharitwoTalk 17:40, 4 May 2008 (UTC)
- That is not what I'm talking about. Imagine the kind of things you could do to your server's economy with 100M gil... Just consider how much you can muck with the economy if you corner the market on something and raise it's price at the AH. With that much money, that's not implausible. This isn't like real life where even $100,000,000 wouldn't really corner the market on anything that meaningful. I'll address the RMT stuff below. --Starcade 22:48, 16 May 2008 (UTC)
You'd only win the highest prize anyway, if you won rank 1, you would not also win rank 2-5 for matching those numbers as well. Also, the chances of all the numbers being picked on each server are low anyway. Even if 10,000 people were to enter, each paying 10,000 gil for ten chances, odds are many of them will be repeat numbers, so the maximum prize payout isn't likely to happen (one rank 1, nine rank 2s, 90 rank 3s, etc). And if RMT go their hands on it... they'd get banned for selling it. You think they wouldn't know or keep an eye on someone who won 100 million who's name is Tvbwteds? --◄Chrisjander► t/ c 20:30, 4 May 2008 (UTC)
- ><; TVB I donot apPr3ciateBBQ yuo as0ciATeing my origenal caractorASD name twih htat of an RMT! --Tvbwteds
- LOL Gryph 13:42, 30 June 2008 (CST)
- Bluntly, I'd think they'd have to flag ANY 100M or 10M winner, as a part of the prize, to watch to ensure RMT is not going on. I don't care if their name is something ridiculous or not. Here's the thing to keep in mind: If we take one site's idea of a million gil being $30, how fast do you really think they could liquidate 100M gil to get their $3,000 before they get banned? Think that one over. It's essentially RMGambling, once you begin to think about it. --Starcade 22:48, 16 May 2008 (UTC)
at picking 0-9 for your last # on the 10 marbles, then using 9 mules to set your 4th # to 0-9 (each mule having a diferent set 4th # and 0-9 last #) this would mean your at least get 1 price rank 4 and every mule/ character would get some exp for getting 1 rank 5 price( 100%) then thats when the odds go from 10 mules 100% last price/ 10 mules 100% or getting 1 rank 4 price, then its geting that 1 willing number on that one winning mule to get the 3rd # right, thats 1/10 10% then getting the 2nd # right too 1/100 1% and ... getting the first # right 1/1000 /1% im lvling all 16 to 5 and hoping i get at least 2 rank 4 prices., or at least 1 equalling 700k
- 16 mules (providing distribution of numbers to ensure all different combinations of last two numbers are taken care of) means 16 small prizes, at least one 4th prize (and possibly two), and then you go from there (approx. 1/6 for lvl. 3, 1/60 for lvl. 2, and, for only 160,000 gil and about $40 above the regular fee, a 1/600 chance at 100M gil. --Starcade 22:48, 16 May 2008 (UTC)
Just a Thought
One thing I have not heard anyone mention is if you ave a winning number on a mule, you really can not choose any item that is RA/EX, because you will not be able to trade it to your main character. So, unless you have the winning marble on your main character, you can't really get a Relic piece to complete your set.
This is, of course, assuming that the marbles are RA/EX so you will be unable to trade them as well. Which I would think would be the only way to regulate you only having 10 marbles (like you have 1 #1 marble, 1 #2 marble...etc.).
Just a thought. Which I hope I am wrong.
--Burizado 19:56, 6 May 2008 (UTC)
- More of a reason to take the gil as the reward - Hiachi 23:01, 6 May 2008 (UTC)
- The marbles are EX (just got mine a few minutes ago)
- Keep in mind that this event was intended to be fun for players. SE knows there are players out there that are willing to pay the extra dollar for 3 consecutive months if it means bringing their dreams to reality. A responsible gambler would know not to spend money that they don't have. SE also knows that there is a good chance your mules will get higher ranked prizes, being that there are more mules than actual players. This means that there is a possibility that if the player's mule is greeted with an option at a rare/ex end-game equipment, they just might continue to play on that mule until they are able to equip it. This not only brings more money to SE, but coaxes the player to play their game a lot more. --Gryph 13:56, 30 June 2008 (CST)
Rank 3 SMN
Rank 3 SMN piece is the Doublet, not a second instance of the Horn. --Alephnot 20:05, 8 May 2008 (UTC)
- Argh lol, fixed. This list was identical to the SE page when I made it, their mistakes, not mine. :P --CharitwoTalk 20:54, 8 May 2008 (UTC)
Winning?
So do you really have to have, say, the last three the same as the lottery number to win, or do you simply have to match any three? - Hiachi 13:03, 15 May 2008 (UTC)
Yes, you have to get them in order - --Vuclutout 11:26, 16 May 2008 (UTC)
Well...that changes the odds for winning ><. Except for Rank 1, at least that's the same either way. - Hiachi 12:11, 16 May 2008 (UTC)
What i would like to know is, can u win like say second prize < 4 numbers > by having those 4 last numbers on a five digit marble, or does it has to be a marble that only has 4 digits. I.E. lets say winning numbers are 12345, and on my 5 digit marble is 02345 and 4 digit marble is 2345. Now does both marbles count for 2nd prize or just the 4 digit marble.LeonCloud 18:29, 16 May 2008 (UTC)
Each marble has five digits, so in this case 12345 would win first prize and any other number ending in -2345 would win second. --Vuclutout 07:52, 17 May 2008 (UTC)
Even if it was simply matching numbers the Rank 1 wouldn't stay the same. 12345 is not 54321. If the winning number was the former, you'd win absolutely nothing with the latter.
If the winning number was 12345, then any number ending in ....5 wins the 5th prize, except those ending in ...45, who win 4th (100K gil or option), except those who end in ..345, who win 3rd (1M gil or option), except those who end in .2345, who win 2nd (10M gil or option), except those who actually have 12345, who win the Grand Prize of 100M gil or eq from Odin or AV and the like. --Starcade 21:16, 17 May 2008 (UTC)
ok question a bout the winning, can you pick 10 numbers all the same and they are the winning numbers since you have 10 does that mean you can pick 10 rank 1 prizes which could posibly amount to 1B gil cause that just sounds rediculus but that only seems fair you got all the tickets >.> but idk to me it seems like it could go ethir way could any 1 say for sure
Yes, the trade-off on that situation is that with 10 marbles all of the same number you have only as good of a chance of winning as someone that only bought one marble; but you do win a prize for each winning marble. - Hiachi 07:17, 22 May 2008 (UTC)
Expectancy
If you were to buy 1 of each marble, example if winning combination were 00000
you'd pay 100000 * 1000 = 100000000 = 100M
you'd win : 1 Rank 1 prize = 100M (00000)
9 Rank 2 prizes = 9*10M = 90M (10000,20000,30000,40000,50000,60000,70000,80000,90000) 90 Rank 3 prizes = 90*1M = 90M
900 Rank 4 prizes = 900*100k = 90M
9000 Rank 5 prizes = 0 (xp scroll)
Total = 370M
which give 10000 prizes
profit = 370M-100M = 270M
profit/marble = 270M/100000 = 2700 gil/marble
There's no reason not to buy 10 ^^
Happy 6th anniversary... and correct me if i'm wrong
--User:MsgMe 17 May 2008 (UTC)
Looks right to me, but who has 100M lying around to fund that?
Let alone the accounts to do that. With 16 characters per account, you would need 625 accounts to perform this.
Which at $12.95 for the base account, and $1.00 for each character, you're talking $27.95 for each account. Which would be $17,468.75, a month, and you would need them all active for around 2 months, which is $34,937.50.
Not to mention the time it would take to level 10000 characters to 5.
--Burizado 14:59, 19 May 2008 (UTC)
- You're forgetting you must leave all the accounts active until after the third billing cycle to claim any rewards. You would give SE $52,406.25 of your money over the course of 3 months to keep 10000 characters active and since the $100,000,000 Gil reward is only worth about $3000 USD through RMT services and expected to decline, it doesn't seem to be worth even writing out all that math we just did. lol --Gryph 14:07, 30 June 2008 (CST)
The draw itself
Three questions that had slipped my mind up until now:
1) Is the drawing being posted in-game or on the website (or both?)
2) Is it one winning number overall, or one winning number for each individual server? (12345 for Shiva, 23456 for Odin, etc.)
3) What time, roughly, is the draw happening? I'm guessing it's midnight PDT (or later), since it's already past midnight JST, and nearing 8pm EDT.
--Snojoex 23:55, 29 June 2008 (UTC)
According to http://www.playonline.com/ff11fr/guide/mogbon/index.html (which seems to be the only one containing this information), the winning numbers will be announced the 30th of June at 5:00PM Central European Time (30 juin 2008 à 17h) via Live Vana'diel from the official site. Aarre 00:10, 30 June 2008 (UTC)
Well that's 15 hours from now, correct? Isn't that past JP midnight? The JP version of that same page also states June 30th, though, so it can't be the 1st in Japan. Please correct me if I'm wrong; anticipating this as much as everyone else. --Vael of Phoenix 00:28, 30 June 2008 (UTC)
It's midnight JST, between the 30th and the 1st, so 8AM on the 30th PST. Gaussian 00:29, 30 June 2008 (UTC)
I'd like to know who put the timer up in the first place. I figured it was wrong to begin with because there was no timezone verification and no word of it was put anywhere but the front page (as far as I could tell.) I bet it was Charitwo. --Vael of Phoenix 05:11, 30 June 2008 (UTC)
- Don't throw claims around you can't backup. Anyway, that original time was midnight UTC (Greenwich Mean Time), it didn't happen, so he changed it. --CharitwoTalk 05:16, 30 June 2008 (UTC)
Numbers
Rank 5: 1
Rank 4: 44
Rank 3: 379
Rank 2: 1017
Rank 1: 47396
Can't see where to update index page. --Woooodum 10:07, 30 June 2008 (UTC)
"Editing of this article or image is currently disabled in order to preserve published Square Enix material. Users may discuss changes on the talk page."
All officials annoucements cannot be edited. --Worax 05:44, 1 July 2008 (UTC)
- "Can't see where to update index page." <_< --Woooodum 10:23, 1 July 2008 (UTC)
Total Winners
Rank 5: 837417 winners
Rank 4: 60461 winners
Rank 3: 6854 winners
Rank 2: 1234 winners
Rank 1: 56 winners
- The number of winners for each prize is a combined total from all worlds.
--Fuuneko 10:35, 30 June 2008 (UTC)